Statistical Probability and Scientific Certainty
A.Y. 2026/2027
Learning objectives
Undefined
Expected learning outcomes
Undefined
Lesson period: Second semester
Assessment methods: Esame
Assessment result: voto verbalizzato in trentesimi
Single course
This course can be attended as a single course.
Course syllabus and organization
Single session
Responsible
Lesson period
Second semester
Course syllabus
The first part of the course is dedicated to statistical tools for uncertainty analysis:
· Data and variables
· Graphical representation of data
· Time series and cross-sectional data
· Summary measures (mean, variance, and standard deviation)
· Frequency distributions
· Relationships among variables
· Probability, uncertainty, and risk
· Interpretation of data, construction of indicators, and limits of statistical evidence
· Indicators for interpreting traditional risks
· Introduction to emerging risks
Applications:
· The role of emerging risks in credit risk assessment
· The Impact of Climate-Related and Geopolitical Risks on Credit Risk and Financial Decision-Making
· Learning About Climate Risk from Data: Estimation, Uncertainty, and Policy Implications
The second part is dedicated to the basic concepts of philosophy of science, with a focus on the use of scientific evidence in contexts of epistemic uncertainty: relationship between scientific evidence and theories; experimental and observational methodologies; scientific reasoning; logical fallacies and cognitive biases; operationalization and measurement practices; values in science
· Data and variables
· Graphical representation of data
· Time series and cross-sectional data
· Summary measures (mean, variance, and standard deviation)
· Frequency distributions
· Relationships among variables
· Probability, uncertainty, and risk
· Interpretation of data, construction of indicators, and limits of statistical evidence
· Indicators for interpreting traditional risks
· Introduction to emerging risks
Applications:
· The role of emerging risks in credit risk assessment
· The Impact of Climate-Related and Geopolitical Risks on Credit Risk and Financial Decision-Making
· Learning About Climate Risk from Data: Estimation, Uncertainty, and Policy Implications
The second part is dedicated to the basic concepts of philosophy of science, with a focus on the use of scientific evidence in contexts of epistemic uncertainty: relationship between scientific evidence and theories; experimental and observational methodologies; scientific reasoning; logical fallacies and cognitive biases; operationalization and measurement practices; values in science
Prerequisites for admission
The course has no specific prerequisites, except for a basic understanding of percentages, growth rates, working with datasets, using basic Excel functions, and fundamental financial concepts.
Teaching methods
PowerPoint presentations, Excel exercises, and practitioner talks.
Students are encouraged to use their personal laptops during class to follow the Excel exercises discussed in the lecture.
Students are encouraged to use their personal laptops during class to follow the Excel exercises discussed in the lecture.
Teaching Resources
Slides, problem sets, etc. will be provided during lectures and it will be regularly published online in MyAriel platform.
Only selected section of the chapters 1-2-3-5 of the book: "Business Analytics: Data Analysis & Decision Making", 7th Edition by S. Christian Albright/Wayne L. Winston
Only selected sections: "The Bank-Business Relationship - Information Asymmetries, Relationship Lending, and Regulation", by P. Brighi and M. Mussoni, Palgrave Macmillan Cham Palgrave Macmillan Cham.
Some papers related to the practitioners' talks will be uploaded in MyAriel platform.
For the second part, the students will be also provided with selected papers on the topics covered during the lectures, which will complement the contents of the slides.
Only selected section of the chapters 1-2-3-5 of the book: "Business Analytics: Data Analysis & Decision Making", 7th Edition by S. Christian Albright/Wayne L. Winston
Only selected sections: "The Bank-Business Relationship - Information Asymmetries, Relationship Lending, and Regulation", by P. Brighi and M. Mussoni, Palgrave Macmillan Cham Palgrave Macmillan Cham.
Some papers related to the practitioners' talks will be uploaded in MyAriel platform.
For the second part, the students will be also provided with selected papers on the topics covered during the lectures, which will complement the contents of the slides.
Assessment methods and Criteria
The exam aims to assess the achievement of the following learning objectives:
- Knowledge and understanding of the main theoretical concepts related to statistical tools, probability, uncertainty and risk.
- Ability to interpret and critically analyze economic, financial and business phenomena related to the emerging risks (i.e. ESG, geopolitical, etc.) using basic statistical reasoning.
- Ability to evaluate the role and limits of statistical evidence in decision-making processes, particularly in contexts characterized by uncertainty.
- Ability to analyze theoretical, practical and ethical problems through the specific gaze of the philosophy of science.
- Knowledge and understanding of the main theoretical concepts related to statistical tools, probability, uncertainty and risk.
- Ability to interpret and critically analyze economic, financial and business phenomena related to the emerging risks (i.e. ESG, geopolitical, etc.) using basic statistical reasoning.
- Ability to evaluate the role and limits of statistical evidence in decision-making processes, particularly in contexts characterized by uncertainty.
- Ability to analyze theoretical, practical and ethical problems through the specific gaze of the philosophy of science.
Modules or teaching units
Philosophy of Science
PHIL-02/A - Logic and Philosophy of Science - University credits: 3
Lessons: 21 hours
Statistics
ECON-09/B - Financial Markets and Institutions - University credits: 3
Lessons: 21 hours
Professor:
Brighi Paola
Shifts:
Turno
Professor:
Brighi PaolaProfessor(s)
Reception:
Tuesday 4.30 pm
Via Festa del Perdono 3